As global warming has become more urgent over time, the COP has evolved into a venue for countries to commit resources to mitigating global warming and climate change. However, it has also become a hotbed of disputes between developing and industrialized countries, particularly over who is to blame for climate change.

The 26th COP is expected to be one of the most important to date as countries are expected to commit even more resources to combating climate change since the Paris Agreement, a legally binding global treaty aimed at keeping global warming ‘well below’ two degrees Celsius to limit global warming and help prevent climate change.

Detailing what he termed were India's ‘five elixirs’ for climate, Prime Minister, Narendra Modi announced that his country would adopt a net zero emissions target - by 2070. This is quite a significant step for the world's third largest emitter, as it has to be tempered by the fact that the date is far past the mid-century goal for carbon neutrality that scientists say is necessary to avert the most dangerous levels of warming.

“At COP-26, the Parties will work to achieve the completion of Paris Agreement implementation guidelines; the mobilization of climate finance; actions to strengthen climate adaptation, technology development and transfer; and keeping in reach the Paris Agreement goals of limiting the rise in global temperatures,” the Ministry of External Affairs said.

India's renewable energy transformation has also piqued the interest of the United States, which wants to help India reach its Paris Agreement commitments. John Kerry, the Special Presidential Envoy for Climate Change, launched the US-India Climate Action and Finance Mobilization Dialogue on his second visit to India this year, with the purpose of strengthening bilateral cooperation to accomplish the Paris Agreement's goals.

During his speech at COP26, the Indian Prime Minister startled observers both inside and outside India by making the following bold and what appear to be unconditional guarantees on India's decarbonisation:

Goals

1. Increase non-fossil energy capacity to 500 GW (gigawatts) by 2030.
2. Meet 50 percent of energy requirements from renewable energy (RE) by 2030.
3. Reduce the total projected carbon emissions by 1 billion tonnes (BT) by 2030.
4. Reduce the carbon intensity of the economy by less than 45 percent.
5. Achieve net zero carbon by 2070.

Many environmentalists applauded the five commitments (Panchamrit), which are intended to put India on a solid path to decarbonization. The announcements provide commercial firms banking on green investments to pay off handsomely with the assurance that government policy will secure their gains. The veracity of these expectations will only be disclosed in the long run, but the interpretation of the rather unclear commitments is a more immediate worry from a more objective standpoint. At this stage, it's assumed that these are aspirational, non-binding pledges, and that the official release on the new NDCs will answer some of the pledges' questions.

 

1. By 2030, non-fossil energy (electricity?) capacity should be increased to 500 GW (gigawatts): The term 'energy' appears in the translation of the PM's address, although the connection is almost certainly to electricity. This goal is most likely linked to a previous commitment to raise installed renewable energy capacity for electricity generating to 450 GW by 2030. If this is the case, India has committed to increasing non-fossil fuel capacity from 154 GW to 500 GW over the next nine years.
2. By 2030, renewable energy (RE) will account for 50 percent of total energy (electrical?) requirements: This statement is difficult to read, but if the reference is to electricity rather than primary energy, India will need to boost RE consumption by five times in the next nine years to fulfil this objective (now approximately 10 percent of power generation). If primary energy is meant, the challenge is nearly impossible to meet because the present share of renewable energy in primary energy use is less than two percent.
3. Reduce total expected carbon emissions by 1 BT by 2030 (in the business-as-usual scenario? ): This is a bold commitment because it calls for a complete decrease in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2030. Under present regulations, India's CO2 emissions are predicted to rise from around three BT to over 2.9 BT by 2030. India will effectively revert to CO2 emissions in 2007 if this is reduced by 1 BT. This would imply either a decrease in overall energy use or a dramatic increase in RE consumption. It's best left to the imagination as to what this might mean for the economy.
4. Reduce the economy's carbon intensity by less than (or at least?) 45 percent (in comparison to 2005?) : Of the five vows made, this is perhaps the least vague. India's ongoing NDC commitment is to reduce CO2 intensity by 33-35 percent by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. India's CO2 intensity has decreased by 28 percent in 2020 compared to 2005 levels, according to government statements. India can achieve this goal if the factors that have contributed to India's reduction in CO2 emissions over the last three decades, such as a shift to a less energy-intensive service sector, a shift in household cooking fuel from inefficient biomass to efficient petroleum and natural gas-based fuels, and an increase in industrial energy efficiency, continue. However, if India's current economic policy of growing domestic manufacturing is successful, achieving this target will become more challenging. Manufacturing consumes a lot of energy and, as a result, emits a lot of CO2.
5. Achieve net zero carbon by 2070: This is likely India's lone pledge at COP26, as many of the world's major CO2 emitters, including China and the US, the world's largest and second largest CO2 emitters, have made net zero pledges (China by 2060 and USA by 2050).

Issues

From a geopolitical standpoint, India's commitment to net-zero at COP26 was unavoidable, but the offer of far more radical pledges with no quid pro quo is perplexing. The short answer is that it is in India's best interests to defend itself from the effects of climate change by drastically reducing carbon emissions. However, climate change is a worldwide concern, and unless all major polluting nations respond with bold pledges to reduce carbon emissions, the environment will deteriorate.

However, there is a further discrepancy that adds to the ambiguity. At COP26, India refused to sign a non-binding pact to phase out coal by 2030 for affluent countries and 2040 for poor ones. China, the US, and Australia, all of which use a lot of coal, were not among the signatories.

Coal is viewed as the major adjustment variable for India's energy trajectories of 'business as usual' and 'low carbon'. However, the biggest adjustment variable between the two courses is millions of people hoping for a better quality of life through large-scale industry that provides well-paid and secure jobs. If India's large-scale industrialisation takes off, the quality of living for millions of people will improve, but it will also increase the amount of carbon in the country's energy basket, barring a miracle in clean energy technologies. India's COP26 pledges are lofty and unclear, and ideally also aspirational (non-binding), therefore, there's no harm in shooting for the stars.