“I had a very good meeting with Elon Musk in Washington DC. We discussed various issues, including those he is passionate about such as space, mobility, technology, and innovation. I talked about India's efforts towards reform and furthering Minimum Government, Maximum Governance,” says Prime Minister Narendra Modi after his two-day visit to the US. Modi is the fourth foreign leader to meet with President Donald Trump in his second term, after the prime ministers of Israel and Japan and Jordan’s King Abdullah. While the Modi-Trump Meeting partly signifies a continuation of US policy and a solid bipartisan agreement on engaging with India, Trump perceives the relationship from a different perspective.

Significance of PM’s US Visit and Meeting with Trump

India and the US have chosen to significantly enhance their strategic partnership across various important sectors, with the discussion moving forward with plans to supply New Delhi with F-35 fighter jets as part of a substantial increase in military aid worth billions of dollars. A new initiative called the Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance (ASIA) has been launched to promote industry collaboration and production in the Indo-Pacific region. 

For the past four years, it seemed to Indians that the U.S. was apprehensive about the term ‘trade.’ It could be called a ‘free trade agreement ‘instead of just a “trade agreement,” this still represents progress for an economic relationship that has been quite stagnant. This development is significant not only for India but also for policymakers from other countries in the Indo-Pacific who had lost hope in negotiating market access to the U.S., as they will be rejuvenated by this progress.

Trump believes that the US hasn’t benefited sufficiently from trade. Before he met with Modi, he had stated that India had some of the highest tariffs globally and proposed a plan to impose similar tariffs on all US trading partners. However, he is open to discussions about market access, a contrast to his predecessor’s approach. The Biden administration aimed to reshape the global economic framework, while Trump's approach focuses on negotiating better deals to present to his supporters. One of these strategies is more grounded in reality.

India is not an adversary like China or Iran, but it is also not as strong an ally as the UK, Japan, or other NATO countries. Consequently, India is not viewed as a significant threat to the US, unlike China. Additionally, it does not face the same criticism directed at allies for not contributing sufficiently. Instead, with Trump placing less emphasis on conventional allies, India can strategically align itself with a group of like-minded nations. 

Both Trump and Modi are influential leaders who share a common viewpoint on China and radical Islam being significant threats, a common disdain for liberal media and civil society, deep-rooted economic nationalism, and a foreign policy driven by self-interest rather than values. A recent survey indicates that Indians are among those who are most favorable toward the prospect of a second term for Trump.

 What did Modi Discuss with Elon Musk?

Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX and Tesla and a close Trump ally met with PM Modi at the Trump’s guest house, the Blair House in Washington. He was accompanied by his three children - X, Strider, and Azure - and Neuralink director Shivon Zilis. Musk gifted PM Modi a Starship hexagonal heatshield tile, while the latter gifted his children classic Indian books like Panchtantra and 'Crescent Moon' by Rabindranath Tagore.

The topic of discussion was enhancing cooperation between US and Indian organizations in the areas of innovation, artificial intelligence, space exploration, and sustainable development. Musk has long wished for his Starlink satellite broadband service to enter the Indian market. Musk has previously referred to himself as a ‘fan of Modi.’ But regulatory obstacles, security worries, and resistance from domestic telecom behemoths like Reliance Jio, owned by Mukesh Ambani, have delayed its rollout.

Long-Term Uncertainty with China

There are still long-term risks associated with the India–US relationship stemming from differing expectations. Modi's trip to the US takes place against a backdrop of significant recent diplomatic efforts between India and Western nations that underscore India's market potential. However, an important strategic element of the US relationship is tied to the goal of positioning India as a counterbalance to China. Many proponents of a tough stance on China during the Trump administration also view India positively. The ‘China factor’ is also apparent in technology, a crucial area of collaboration between India and the West, and a vital competitive sphere against China. The US, EU, and UK have all increased their engagement with India in this sector in recent years.

India's extensive IT-trained workforce and digital ecosystem have positioned it as a leader in areas such as chip design and digital public infrastructure. New Delhi is also attempting to capitalize on the recent concerns regarding China's DeepSeek platform to bolster its own AI credentials. 

 

Nevertheless, there is a fundamental misconception regarding India's viability as an alternative to China. India does not possess the manufacturing capacity of China and remains significantly reliant on it for components and raw materials in supply chains.

Despite their challenging relationship, China is one of India's primary trade partners, and India continues to depend heavily on China in various sectors, including pharmaceuticals and solar power. This reliance undermines the idea that India is a primary beneficiary of efforts to diversify supply chains away from China. Furthermore, there are constraints on how integrally India can intertwine itself with Western technological frameworks due to its relationships with nations like Russia and Iran. This situation will impose limitations on technology transfers and joint manufacturing, in addition to stringent end-user requirements.

These developments reveal a degree of irrational optimism in the way the US and the West generally perceive India. Beyond India's supply-chain dependence on China, New Delhi's longstanding commitment to strategic autonomy in its foreign policy will leave it wary of any initiatives that resemble a military alliance. For instance, this will generate uncertainty about India's potential role in any US-China confrontation over Taiwan.