| | APRIL 20238Based on rating agency ICRA, a healthy increase in rabi (winter) crop output, a pick-up in year-over-year (YoY) growth of high-frequency indicators in January and February, strong service demand, and a moderation in commodity prices are expected to boost India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 4.5­5 percent in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022­23 (Q4 FY23) from 4.4 percent in Q3. Crop yields may suffer as a result of the unseasonal rainfall in mid-March.ICRA anticipates that throughout FY24, consumer sentiment will improve, which bodes positively for consumption demand, but it will still be uneven. El Nino conditions could reappear, which could have a negative impact on crop production, rural demand, and food inflation, according to ICRA. ICRA predicts that the GDP growth would slow to six percent in FY24 from the projected 6.9 percent in FY23.In comparison to the 9.9 percent growth experienced in Q3 FY23, the ICRA business activity monitor reported a better YoY expansion of 11.7 percent in January­February FY23. Although the index significantly increased from the pre-COVID levels of January­February 2020 by 15.3 percent, this was less than the 18.2 percent expansion witnessed in Q3 FY23. ICRA anticipates two major risks that could prevent the consumption increase. The first is a result of persistently high inflation. Second, crop damage caused by a heat wave, excessive rainfall outside of the season, or a monsoon drought might potentially have an impact on farm revenues and rural spending. INDIAN GDP GROWTH LIKELY TO TOUCH 4.5-5 PERCENT IN Q4 FY23 FROM Q3'S 4.4 PERCENTIN FOCUSICRA ANTICIPATES THAT THROUGHOUT FY24, CONSUMER SENTIMENT WILL IMPROVE, WHICH BODESPOSITIVELY FOR CONSUMPTION DEMAND, BUT IT WILL STILL BE UNEVEN
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