| | NOVEMBER 20239As per economists surveyed by Reuters, consumer spending in India during the festival season this year will be marginally higher than in 2022, but likely not by enough to accelerate the country's already rapidly expanding major economy. Expectations for 6.3 percent growth in this fiscal year and the next, along with the generally positive survey data, indicate that even with a decline in inflation, a Reserve Bank of India interest rate cut is still quite some way off.Consumption, which accounts for roughly 60 percent of the third-largest economy in Asia, was hit hard during the pandemic and has taken a while to recover to pre-COVID levels. Although it was anticipated that consumer spending in the current quarter would help the economy somewhat, the year's overall growth outlook has remained largely unchanged.Out of 33 economists, nearly 75 percent predicted that spending during the October through December festival season will be higher than the previous year. Of them, four stated significantly higher and 21 said slightly higher.Based on the median predictions of a larger sample of 63 economists in the Oct. 16­25 survey, GDP growth will average 6.3 percent this fiscal year and the next. In a September poll, the median prediction was 6.2 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively, almost exactly the same.According to Dhiraj Nim, an economist at ANZ Research, "Festive demand could be substantial this time, and I think that bodes well for private consumption expenditure in Q4, and I hope it delivers that extra kick it does every year." INDIAN FESTIVE SEASON SPENDING TO BE HIGHER THAN LAST YEARIN FOCUSBased on the median predictions of a larger sample of 63 economists in the Oct. 16­25 survey, GDP growth will average 6.3 percent this fiscal year
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