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India's Retail Inflation Lowers from 5.66% to 4.7%

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Retail inflation in India fell to an 18-month low of 4.70 percent in April, down from 5.66 percent in March, according to figures issued by the ministry of statistics on Friday.

For the second month in a row, consumer-price index (CPI)-based inflation has maintained within the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance band of 2-6 percent.

In April, the consumer food price index (CFPI) fell to 3.84 percent. Rural inflation was 4.68 percent, while urban inflation was 4.85 percent.

Vegetable inflation declined by 6.50 percent in April. Food and beverage inflation rates were 4.22 percent and 5.52 percent, respectively.

Retail inflation in India has been above the RBI's 6% objective for three consecutive quarters, and it will only return to that level in November 2022.

In April, a poll of 53 economists forecast that inflation would decelerate to 4.80%. "Predictions ranged from 4.40 percent to 5.80 percent, with respondents expecting inflation to remain below the RBI's upper tolerance limit of 6.00 percent for the second consecutive month," according to the survey results.

March was the first month this year in which retail inflation in India fell below the RBI's upper tolerance range of 6%.

In an unexpected move, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently agreed to maintain the repo rate at 6.50 percent. At a news conference following the policy announcement, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das stated that the action "is a pause, not a pivot," because the MPC "wanted to assess the impact of the cumulative 250 basis point hike in policy rates since May last."


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