As the global economy faces significant problems due to Trump's tariffs, the Reserve Bank has begun its bi-monthly monetary policy review with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in key interest rates, amid the need to encourage growth and moderate inflation.

Coming Wednesday, Governor Sanjay Malhotra's six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to make its decision public.

The MPC is observed to have cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent in February, the first revision in two and a half years and the first cut since May 2020.

The RBI's rate-setting panel is expected to announce another rate drop of 25 basis points this week, according to experts.

The non-linear but overlapping trilemma of trade-related tariff barriers, sharp currency fluctuations, and fragmented capital flows is expected to pose serious challenges to the global economy, according to an SBI research report.

It added that even while central banks are accommodative, the direction of their rate action may not be clear.

It is one of the few times that a combination of falling US interest rates, a stronger rupee, and domestic inflation falling below the goal level is appearing, according to Debopam Chaudhuri, Chief Economist of Piramal Group.

The assisted banking services sector is anxiously anticipating actions that will increase financial inclusion and spur growth as the RBI gets ready to unveil its next monetary policy, according to Shikhar Aggarwal, Chairman of BLS E-Services.

According to Ashish Gupta, CEO of Fretbox, the industry is anticipating further monetary policy easing, including a potential interest rate cut to encourage borrowing and spending.

Economists anticipate another 25 basis point decrease to boost GDP, according to Bajaj Broking Research, particularly in light of recent external challenges.

 

It is anticipated that the US's 26 percent tariff on Indian imports will cut India's GDP growth for FY 2025–2026 by 20–40 basis points, possibly bringing it down to about 6.1 percent from the RBI's initial prediction of 6.7 percent.

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According to Bajaj Broking Research, this would pressure the RBI to lower interest rates furthermore to combat economic pressure.