According to Dilip Asbe, CEO of the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), the country's Unified Payments Interface (UPI) could potentially reach 100 billion transactions over the next 10 to 15 years, driven by credit growth. "We are looking at 100 billion transactions in the next 10-15 years which is a fairly achievable number. And, credit is going to be the backbone of this growth", Asbe said at the Global Fintech Fest.
He pointed out that credit has already been launched on UPI and the commercials would be released within in a couple of weeks. "I think the small ticket and high-frequency credit is going to be important to reach that goal". He also said that growing fintech transactions would play a crucial role in driving up UPI usage.
"We are fairly convinced that recurring payments mandate QRs and EMI QRs will drive that usage", he remarked. According to official figures, as many as 13.89 billion transactions were recorded on UPI in June up from 14.04 billion in May. According to consultancy firm PwC India report, the number of transactions on UPI is expected to jump more than 3-fold from about 131 billion in 2023-24 to 439 billion by 2028-29, accounting for 91 per cent of total retail digital transactions.
The report titled 'The Indian Payments Handbook - 2024-29' highlights that India's digital payments landscape has experienced significant growth over the past eight years, with the industry expected to more than triple in volume from 159 billion transactions in 2023-24 to 481 billion by 2028-29.
In terms of the value of payment transactions, the market growth is expected to more than double, from Rs 265 lakh crore to Rs 593 lakh crore during this period. The PwC India report puts the year-on-year growth in transaction volume on UPI at 57 per cent. The report also notes that credit cards saw strong growth in 2023-24, with the industry issuing over 16 million new cards. This growth led to a 22 percent increase in transaction volume and a 28 percent rise in transaction value. The report projects that the number of credit cards will reach 200 million by 2028-29.